The Never Weres

The NFL season has ended. The Patriots finished the year at 10-7. (If you want to listen to a certain season preview podcast one of the hosts might have predicted a 10-7 season) There was a stretch where New England won seven games in a row. They were once sitting on top of the AFC and then they lost 3 of their last 4 and fell to the 6-seed in the playoffs. Very uncharacteristic of Bill Belichick teams. December was where they started to separate themselves from the rest of the league. There have been three trends that have popped up at the end of the year that has hurt this Patriots team and cost them better seeding, possibly the AFC East.

1. Slow starts in the First Half

In their losses to the Colts, Bills, and Dolphins at the end of the season, the Patriots scored 14 first-half points total. The offense in these big games has come out flat and then has to play catch-up the rest of the game. This is a team that has built itself around a very good run offense. They have the offensive line and the running backs to do so. Being able to establish the run game would take pressure off their rookie quarterback. But, when you are falling behind early and by double digits, which was the case in all three of those losses, you have to throw out the game-plan and rely on Mac Jones. This is not exclusively a Patriots problem. Most teams do not want to fall behind by double digits in the first half but some teams, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Buffalo all have a QB and an offense that can bring them back. The Patriots do not. If there is any hope of a win in the playoffs or any hope of a run in the playoffs, New England has to play from ahead. Otherwise, they might continue to come up just short at the end as they have these last few weeks.

2. Stupid Penalties and Turnovers

From 2001-2019 the Patriots we masters of never panicking and never making bone-headed plays. Take a look at Super Bowl XLIX. Belichick saw the Seahawks sideline losing their minds because New England didn’t take a time out leading to them not running their all-pro running back from the 1-yard line. This was one of the countless times the Patriots didn’t overreact to a pressure moment in a game. The other thing they didn’t do was commit penalties that would stop drives in their tracks or give the other team extra life. This has not been the case these last four weeks. Here is a shortlist of the Patriots mistakes from their last three losses:

Indianapolis: Blocked punt for a Touchdown, Mac Jones INT to start the 2nd half, Offsides on a missed field goal that leads to another attempt where field goal is good, Kyle Duggar gets ejected for punching Michael Pittman, Jakobi Meyers holding negates a 1st down run. Also at some point in this game, Isaiah Wynn got so turned around he tackled his own RB for a loss.

Buffalo: Jonnu Smith holding negates 19-yard pass, N’Keal Harry gives up on tipped pass that goes for an interception, Christian Barmore drawn offsides on 4th and 7 – Buffalo converts on the next play, Mac Jones is hit out of bounds and the flag is picked up (this was bullshit regardless of the intent he was hit out of bounds) Trent Brown gets a 15-yard taunting penalty, David Andrews taunting penalty after Mac Jones hit on a slide (this was also bullshit, players usually get away with a lot more when their QB gets hit), I think the biggest mistake in this game was not changing up coverage as Isaiah McKenzie continued to torch them.

Miami: Mac throws pick-six, Brandon Bolden unnecessary roughness on a fake punt (this was awful…he committed to the tackle before the slide AND missed him), Mac Jones false start on 4th and 1 (just run a QB sneak your in the playoffs already), Jaylen Mills pass interference in the end zone, Mac Jones fumbles the snap, Lawrence Guy lines up over the center on punt formation.

Those mistakes happened over the course of three games. This seems like a season’s worth of boneheaded mistakes. Some of them are penalties that happen in the course of a game. Some of them were officiating mistakes which might be the homer in me but seem like they were blown calls. Regardless of all these Patriots fans aren’t used to these mistakes. Much like starting a game behind by two scores, these things are very hard to overcome and have certainly cost the Patriots wins in the past few weeks.

3. The defense not getting that one big stop.

This is the biggest issue the team has had. This has been a problem the entire season. You can point to one-stop that could have changed the outcome of all seven of their losses. So let’s do it. Let’s revisit every instance

Miami – Week 1

After a Damien Harris fumble near the goal line, the Patriots defense just needed to prevent the Dolphins from getting a first down. That led to a 3rd and 1 that would seal the game for Miami

New Orleans – Week 3

Mac Jones hit Kendrick Bourne for a touchdown with 9+ minutes left in the 4th quarter. The defense needs to not allow points and get the ball back. New Orleans would go on a 7-minute drive that had two 3rd down conversions

Tampa Bay – Week 4

This game is more remembered for not going for it at midfield on 4th down but before that the Patriots took the lead on a field goal. Again if they could just produce a stop and give up no points they would have a shot to win.

Dallas – Week 6

This was a wild game. Mac threw a pick-six and then a 74-yard touchdown on back-to-back plays. But this again came down to the Patriots taking a lead and then needing a stop and no score. The difference with this drive was there were two opportunities for the game to end.

Indianapolis – Week 15

The Patriots did a pretty good job containing Jonathan Taylor in this game. Especially considering he was on one hell of a heater. That was until they needed one stop to get them the ball back with a chance to win.

Buffalo – Week 16

Josh Allen played one of the best games he ever will in this one. So did Isaiah McKenzie. With how dominant the Bills offense was it was surprising that the Patriots had a chance to get the ball back and take the lead. JC Jackson dropped an interception at the start of the drive that will give you terrible memories of Asante Samuel in Super Bowl XLII. But, here we are again with a 4th down.

Miami – Week 18

In one of the worst games they have played all season the Patriots fought their way back and we somehow only down 3 with a chance to get the ball back and tie with a field goal. They just needed to stop Tua. Seriously…Tua

If these mistakes continue to happen Saturday night will be the end of the season for the Patriots. If that’s the case it will suck but at the same time it was a great starting point with Mac Jones and with a few improvements in the run defense and maybe an explosive wide receiver the Patriots could be real formidable in the next few years. I don’t think this team has the legs to make a long playoff run but I will certainly talk myself into it by 8:15 Saturday night.