The Never Weres

In the 2013 World Series between the Red Sox and Cardinals, then 21-year-old rookie Michael Wacha was the winning pitcher in Game 2 and the losing pitcher in the series-clinching 6th game. Over the next seven seasons, Wacha’s career was up and down with really good years in 2015 and 2017. When he signed in the offseason with Boston for 1-year $7 million, it wasn’t much more than a blip on the transaction wire.

We are now a month into the season and the Red Sox are disappointing with a 10-14 record through Tuesday. The offense hasn’t produced like it should be and the bullpen is just plain bad. A surprising bright spot has been the starting rotation. Over the last two weeks, the Red Sox starters have an ERA of 2.40, a K/9 of 7.92, and a .202 batting average against. In those two weeks, the team is 4-9, I mentioned the bullpen…right?

Nathan Eovaldi has been great, although he has allowed a high number of home runs already. Nick Pivetta has been bad, talk about the home run ball killing you. Rich Hill has been alright getting piggyback help from Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock (who have been really good when they pitch, starting or in relief). That brings us to the surprising renaissance of Michael Wacha.

Wacha has been incredible in his short time with Boston so far. He has started 5 games and has a record of 3-0, an ERA of 1.38, hitters are batting .146 against him, and a .92 WHIP. Wacha has also only allowed 3 extra-base hits so far this season, 2 homers and 1 double. This illustration shows that only four of his 385 pitches this year have been hit on the barrel:

The dark red area shows balls that have been barreled. Only an additional 5 pitches have been hit for solid contact. The other 59 pitches put in play have been a combination of flares, topped, hit under, or weak contact. This is surprising because he is not missing bats or striking people out at a high rate.

This shows chart shows he has a bad whiff%, no one is chasing his pitches, he is barely striking people out and he has been walking people. But if you look at the things that are in red, he has a great barrel% and hardhit%. So he is missing the barrel of the bat and producing weak contact as shown in the first image.

In his last start Tuesday night against Los Angeles, Wacha had four innings with a combined 25 pitches. He throws pitches that look completely hittable, which might be the reason for his FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching) being 3.90 compared to his minuscule ERA. Yet, they are not being hit. This could be the result of small sample size, the spongy baseball being used this year, or locating pitches effectively to not be beaten. Whatever the reason Wacha has been one of the few reasons to remain positive about this season.

Photo by Adam Glanzman

Stats and Charts from Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Savant