In his last seven games, Jarren Duran has been on fire. He has two homers, two triples, and three doubles. He is slashing .321/.424/.786. Now I understand that it is only a seven-game stretch. He has been playing center field more in the last week because of the injury to Marcelo Mayer. He has gone from trade deadline darling to untouchable in this short time.
It makes you wonder, isn’t now the perfect time to trade him? With the way he has been hitting recently, doesn’t he now have way more cache? Wouldn’t this exact version of Duran at this precise moment give you the best chance to land a top-of-the-rotation-type starter?
Duran’s 2025 season has not been nearly as good as his 2024 season. But, he is under team control for three more years, and he is the oldest of the regular four outfielders the team has been rotating since Roman Anthony’s call-up.
Should we make a Pro and Con list?
The upside to keeping Duran is pretty obvious. He is really good at baseball. He is one of the biggest difference makers in all of baseball when he puts the ball in play. I have no stats to back this up, but I watch the Red Sox every night. His running style has been explained in many different ways.
He is an extra base machine. Since the start of the 2024 season, only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Bobby Witt Jr. have more extra-base hits. That is not just good company. That is, you are with the three best players in all of baseball company.
He has stolen 52 bases on 64 chances (81% for those wondering) in the last two seasons. He will always take an extra base when he can, leading to 170 runs since the start of 2024 (11th in baseball). He is a pure demon when he gets going.
After reading the last few paragraphs, you may be thinking I am a nutjob. Well, I will take that criticism to heart and try to be a better me, but for now, I am going to continue.
The reasons to trade Duran are less performance-based and lean more toward the team-building side of things. If you look at this roster right now, they are a fringe threat or a sort of contender. Garrett Crochet is an ace with a capital A. I have always been a Brayan Bello guy, and I think he is someone who can give you innings in the playoffs. They will be frustrating and panic-inducing innings, but he can pitch. Lucas Giolito has looked good at times. The rotation drops off there, apologies to Walker Buehler and Richard Fitts. Why he doesn’t go by Dick Fitts is baffling to me.
The number two slot in the rotation needs an upgrade. As good as Bello has been since increasing his cutter use (5/23 against Baltimore), he hasn’t had a game where he allowed more than three earned runs and has a 3.01 ERA. The team still needs a bona fide top-of-the-rotation pitcher to pair with Crochet.
Another aspect of the roster that is affected by this is defense. As my brother/podcast co-host Jack loves to yell every chance he gets, “Leave Ceddanne Rafaela alone.” As in, leave him in center field where he is a game-changer. Rafaela is 2nd in Defensive Runs Above Average (14.5), and is barely trailing Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs by .3. He leads all CF in Fielding Run Value (17) and Outs Above Average (16). These things are nerdy and in the weeds stuff. You could also just watch a Red Sox game when he plays center and see for yourself. He is so good at so many positions that it ends up hurting the team’s defense when he gets moved.
Duran was a finalist for a Gold Glove last year. So was Juan Soto (not a shot at Soto here, love Soto, but…I mean…come on). Duran’s numbers as a centerfielder are not quite Rafaela’s. 1.3 DEF, 2 FRV, and 1 OAA. Also, the eye test does the opposite for Duran. He misses routine balls, takes bad routes, and doesn’t have a strong throwing arm.
You may look at the stats that I laid out for the pro-Duran section and think this is an insane proposition. A high-level run creator in his prime seems like someone you would want to hold onto, but it may also be the perfect time to improve other parts of your roster. The current pitching staff is not going to go deep into October. Adding a guy to the top of the rotation and a bullpen arm changes things, especially with no one separating themselves from the pack in the American League.
In 2004, the Red Sox traded away the best shortstop in the history of the franchise, essentially to improve the vibes and the defense. Breakups hurt, trust me, I had a shrine of the previously mentioned shortstop in my bedroom, but that team went on to do some things, and this Red Sox team is not far away from a run in the playoffs.
Photo by David Butler II
Thanks to Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs everyday for the stats.
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